Transformación territorial en las subcuencas La Sabana y Tres Palos (Guerrero, México): Proyecciones al 2030 y 2050 mediante modelos predictivos

Territorial transformation in the La Sabana and Tres Palos sub-basins (Guerrero, Mexico): Projections for 2030 and 2050 using predictive models. Article published in Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio, Vol. 26, pp. 41-58 (2026), ISSN 1729-3790. Analyzes historical land cover changes (1993–2018) and projects scenarios for 2030 and 2050 using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) module of TerrSet 2024 with its Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm. Explanatory variables: elevation, slope, distance to drainage networks, roads, and settlements. Key results: 96.1% loss of primary forests (11,699.3 ha → 454.3 ha, 1993–2018) and 255.4% urban expansion (2,547.8 ha → 9,054.5 ha). Projection indicates urban areas will reach 14,687.5 ha by 2050 (Kstandard=0.877), with an additional 73% loss of primary forests (2018–2050) and fragmentation of biological corridors. Critical impacts include reduced groundwater recharge and increased flood-prone areas due to loss of permeable cover. Geographic coverage: Bounding box 16.5°N–17.2°N, 99.5°W–100.2°W (La Sabana and Tres Palos sub-basins, municipalities of Acapulco de Juárez and Coyuca de Benítez, Guerrero, Mexico, Costa Grande region). Deposited under the journal's open access policy (CC BY-NC 4.0).