AGnostic risk management for high Impact Low probability Events

AGILE will design, develop, and apply a holistic methodological framework and practical tools for understanding, assessing, managing, and communicating HILPs events with a systemic risk and resilience perspective. The project will combine and integrate a wide range of established and innovative methodologies into a novel and replicable multi-sectoral risk and resilience stress testing methodology to better:

UNDERSTAND (Systems theory, Lateral thinking, Strategic Foresight, Machine Learning)

ANTICIPATE (Scenario Building & table-top exercises, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Machine Learning) and

MANAGE (Resilience assessment, capability development strategic training)

These approaches and services will be co-created within a unique transdisciplinary consortium of research organisations, NGOs, SMEs, first responders, and local and regional authorities. The scalable and replicable methods will enable for the identification of common points of failure of critical societal functions in response to compounding low probability high impact threats as well as provide recommendations for both risk-informed system hardening and threat-agnostic systemic recovery. The project will ultimately improve the strategic and operational risk management capacities and capabilities of DRM stakeholders on local, regional and national level and thus strengthening the societal resilience to new and emerging risks in Europe and beyond.

The project provides the means and the methodology to ensure a wide ranging impact of its results to not only improve the understanding, anticipation and management of HILP risks and events, but the direct and wide-ranging contribution to key European and international policy priorities and global challenges such as the EU disaster risk management policies (in particular UCPM), the European Green Deal priorities (EU Climate Adaptation Strategy), as well as the EU Security Union Strategy.